The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pause–Pause–Pause
$67.3K Volume
55%
Other
$45.3K Volume
45%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$8.8K Volume
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$7.1K Volume
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$6K Volume
1%
Resolved 4
Cut–Pause–Pause
$2.2K Volume
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$2.2K Volume
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$1.3K Volume
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$1.9K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)?
It's a genuine race: Pause–Pause–Pause edges the field at 55%, barely ahead of Other at 44%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)?
Traders give Pause–Pause–Pause a 55% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 16 Sep 2026 (69 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)?
Total turnover stands at $100K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
No change85%YesNo25 bps increase15%YesNo
0 (0 bps)78%YesNo
1 (25 bps)16%YesNo
No change57%YesNo25 bps increase37%YesNoPause–Pause–Pause86%YesNo
Other15%YesNo
October Meeting47%YesNo
September Meeting44%YesNo
Other48%YesNo
Pause–Pause–Pause46%YesNo
No change71%YesNo
25 bps increase16%YesNo
