The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pause–Pause–Pause
$184K Volume
76%
Other
$194.6K Volume
23%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$19.6K Volume
1%
Resolved 6
Cut–Pause–Pause
$10.8K Volume
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$6.1K Volume
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$8.2K Volume
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$14.8K Volume
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
$7.3K Volume
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
$4.9K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)?
The money is on Pause–Pause–Pause at 76%; Other follows at 23%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)?
The market makes Pause–Pause–Pause the favorite at 76%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 29 Jul 2026 (19 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)?
Total turnover stands at $72.7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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Pause–Pause–Pause46%YesNo
↑ 4.25%21%YesNo
↓ 3.25%17%YesNo
