This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Fed
· Economic Policy
· Jerome Powell
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
$1.5M Volume
47%
About This Market
Similar Markets
Fed Decision in June?
No change
Yes 99¢No 1¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 1¢No 99¢
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
Yes 81¢No 19¢
1 (25 bps)
Yes 9¢No 91¢
Fed Decision in July?
No change
Yes 94¢No 6¢
25 bps increase
Yes 4¢No 96¢
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Pause–Pause–Pause
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Other
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
Yes 25¢No 75¢
October Meeting
Yes 13¢No 87¢
Fed Decision in September?
No change
Yes 76¢No 24¢
25 bps increase
Yes 19¢No 81¢
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↓ 3.25%
Yes 26¢No 74¢
↑ 4.25%
Yes 15¢No 85¢
