This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed rate hike in 2026?
Traders are split - 60% for Yes versus 41% for No. A near coin-flip on the order book, so expect the odds to keep moving.
What do traders predict for Fed rate hike in 2026?
Traders give Yes a 60% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Fed rate hike in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 9 Dec 2026 (140 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Fed rate hike in 2026?
$133.3K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Fed rate hike in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
No change85%YesNo25 bps increase14%YesNo
October Meeting57%YesNo
September Meeting52%YesNo
≥0.1%70%YesNo
0.0%21%YesNo
3.4%45%YesNo
3.3%27%YesNo
1 (25 bps)44%YesNo
0 (0 bps)28%YesNo
2.4%36%YesNo
2.5%28%YesNo
0.2%40%YesNo
0.1%26%YesNo
$2.00–$2.2579%YesNo
$2.25–$2.5013%YesNo
