The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pause–Pause–Pause
$40.7K Volume
46%
Other
$51.7K Volume
44%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$3.9K Volume
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$927 Volume
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$1.5K Volume
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1.3K Volume
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1.5K Volume
3%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$905 Volume
5%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$1.5K Volume
4%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)?
The front-runner right now is Pause–Pause–Pause at 46%, ahead of Other at 44%. These implied odds update with every trade on Polymarket's order book.
What do traders predict for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)?
The market gives Pause–Pause–Pause a 46% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.
When does the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market resolve?
It is scheduled to resolve on 28 Oct 2026 (120 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)?
Total traded volume on this market is $18.3K - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.
How can I trade Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) on Polymarket?
Follow the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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