The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pause–Pause–Pause
$238.8K Volume
58%
Other
$311.2K Volume
40%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60.1K Volume
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39.7K Volume
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27.1K Volume
1%
Resolved 4
Cut–Pause–Pause
$17.2K Volume
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$9.6K Volume
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$9.1K Volume
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$7.6K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)?
It's a genuine race: Pause–Pause–Pause edges the field at 58%, barely ahead of Other at 40%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)?
Traders give Pause–Pause–Pause a 58% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market resolve?
The market runs until 28 Oct 2026 (67 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)?
$15.4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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