This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
<1.10ºC
$8K Volume
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$3.5K Volume
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$7.6K Volume
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
$11.5K Volume
91%
1.25–1.29ºC
$13.6K Volume
9%
>1.29ºC
$3.9K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
At 86%, 1.20–1.24ºC has pulled far clear of 1.25–1.29ºC (7%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
Traders price 1.20–1.24ºC at a 86% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) market resolve?
Mark 1 Aug 2026 (5 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
Traders have put $48.1K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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