The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2025 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 16 - 17, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
25 bps decrease
$36.3M Volume
99%
50+ bps decrease
$49.9M Volume
1%
No change
$67.4M Volume
1%
25+ bps increase
$67M Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Fed decision in September? (Resolved) market resolve?
Trading here has ended - the market resolved and was settled under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Fed decision in September? (Resolved)?
Traders have put $2.7M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
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