Economic Policy · Economy

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

$28.6K Volume
05/02/2026 00:00
View on Polymarket
View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket
No change
$716.4K Volume
99%
50+ bps decrease
$705.1K Volume
1%
25 bps decrease
$546.9K Volume
1%
Increase
$601.4K Volume
1%

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) February 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its February 5, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the February 5, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Odds & FAQ

When does the ECB Interest Rates: February 2026 market resolve?
This market has already resolved and was settled under Polymarket's published rules.
How much money is trading on ECB Interest Rates: February 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $28.6K - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.

Similar Markets

No changeNo change78%YesNo
25 bps increase25 bps increase20%YesNo
0 (0 bps)78%YesNo
1 (25 bps)12%YesNo
No changeNo change64%YesNo
25 bps increase25 bps increase31%YesNo
No change96%YesNo
25 bps increase4%YesNo
0.1-0.3%36%YesNo
0.4-0.6%29%YesNo
Pause–Pause–Pause46%YesNo
Other44%YesNo
↑ 4.25%27%YesNo
↓ 3.25%22%YesNo
Trade on Polymarket
Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
500+
$0
Learn more