Global Rates · Economic Policy

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026 (Resolved)

$403 Volume
05/02/2026 00:00
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No change
$716.4K Volume
99%
50+ bps decrease
$705.1K Volume
1%
25 bps decrease
$546.9K Volume
1%
Increase
$601.4K Volume
1%

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) February 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its February 5, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the February 5, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Odds & FAQ

When does the ECB Interest Rates: February 2026 (Resolved) market resolve?
This market is settled. The final outcome was confirmed and paid out under Polymarket's published resolution rules.
How much money is trading on ECB Interest Rates: February 2026 (Resolved)?
Traders have put $403 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

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