This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
No change
$6.7K Volume
92%
25 bps decrease
$1.9K Volume
10%
25 bps increase
$1.9K Volume
2%
50+ bps decrease
$744 Volume
1%
50+ bps increase
$699 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
No change dominates the field at 91%; the nearest challenger, 25 bps decrease, trades at just 7%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
With 91% implied for No change, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the Bank of Mexico Decision in September market resolve?
Mark 24 Sep 2026 (62 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
$4.4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Bank of Mexico Decision in September on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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