This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
25 bps increase
$91.6K Volume
95%
No change
$77K Volume
6%
50+ bps increase
$35.9K Volume
1%
50+ bps decrease
$14.9K Volume
1%
25 bps decrease
$29.6K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
25 bps increase dominates the field at 95%; the nearest challenger, No change, trades at just 5%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
With 95% implied for 25 bps increase, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 10 Sep 2026 (18 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
$403 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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