This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
25 bps decrease
$51.5K Volume
91%
No Change
$34.1K Volume
10%
50+ bps decrease
$10.2K Volume
1%
50+ bps increase
$5.2K Volume
1%
25 bps increase
$5.9K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Brazil decision in September?
25 bps decrease dominates the field at 91%; the nearest challenger, No Change, trades at just 10%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Bank of Brazil decision in September?
Traders price 25 bps decrease at a 91% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Bank of Brazil decision in September market resolve?
Mark 15 Sep 2026 (23 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Bank of Brazil decision in September?
Traders have put $167 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Bank of Brazil decision in September on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.





