The AI Race, Priced in Real Time
Which lab ships the best model this year? Polymarket prices the AI race continuously - OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta and DeepSeek - across release-date markets, benchmark-leadership markets and company milestones. Prices here are real-money probabilities, not pundit takes: when a lab's probability moves 10 points overnight, someone paid for that information. Use them next to our probability guide to read what the market actually believes.
32 active markets
↑$1.25T98%YesNo
↑$1.5T93%YesNo
Anthropic91%YesNo
OpenAI6%YesNo
1.5T+48%YesNo
1T–1.25T17%YesNo
December 31, 202691%YesNo
October 31, 202683%YesNo
$1.75–$2.0T19%YesNo
$2.25–$2.5T18%YesNo
1.8T+86%YesNo
1.5–1.8T10%YesNo
December 31, 202670%YesNo
November 30, 202655%YesNo
October 3193%YesNo
September 3087%YesNo
Anthropic99%YesNoOpenAI1%YesNo
SpaceX65%YesNo
Anthropic36%YesNo
November 3086%YesNo
October 3161%YesNo
October 3160%YesNo
September 3050%YesNo
No release by November 145%YesNo
October 12–October 186%YesNo
$1.25T–$1.5T27%YesNo
$1.0T–$1.25T20%YesNo
October 3189%YesNo
September 3078%YesNo
Anthropic72%YesNo
xAI12%YesNoOctober 202673%YesNo
September 202614%YesNo
December 3196%YesNo
October 3183%YesNo
50%+79%YesNo
55%+50%YesNo
No IPO by December 31, 202685%YesNo
1.5T+7%YesNo
↑$1.25T91%YesNo
↓$1T29%YesNo
$800-$900B58%YesNo
$900B-$1.00T36%YesNo
claude-opus-5-high54%YesNo
claude-opus-5-max36%YesNo
No release by September 3074%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
December 31, 202616%YesNo
September 30, 20261%YesNo
Anthropic95%
OpenAI5%
45%+86%YesNo
40%+85%YesNo
No release by August 3193%YesNo
August 272%YesNo
↑$900B90%YesNo
↑$1.0T70%YesNo
Anthropic86%YesNoOpenAI6%YesNo
OpenAI + Anthropic34%
Google66%
50%+71%YesNo
55%+45%YesNo
AI race markets - FAQ
What does a 60% price on an AI market mean?
The market collectively estimates a 60% probability that the outcome happens. Shares pay $1 if it resolves yes, $0 if not - so 60¢ is the crowd's live probability, backed by real money.
Which AI markets have the most volume?
Best-model-by-year-end markets (judged by benchmark leaderboards), major release-date markets, and company milestones like revenue or valuation thresholds typically lead AI-category volume.
How do these markets resolve?
Each market specifies its resolution source up front - usually a named benchmark leaderboard, an official company announcement, or a credible-reporting standard. Read the rules tab before trading: the resolution criteria are the contract.
