The AI Race, Priced in Real Time
Which lab ships the best model this year? Polymarket prices the AI race continuously - OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta and DeepSeek - across release-date markets, benchmark-leadership markets and company milestones. Prices here are real-money probabilities, not pundit takes: when a lab's odds move 10 points overnight, someone paid for that information. Use them next to our probability guide to read what the market actually believes.
18 active markets
1450+99%YesNo
1460+4%YesNo
Anthropic94%YesNo
Google6%YesNo
↑$1.25T92%YesNo
↑$1.5T78%YesNo
1440+99%YesNo
1450+99%YesNo
July 3051%YesNo
No release by July 3122%YesNo
↑$900B73%YesNo
↑$1.0T52%YesNo
1450+89%YesNo
1470+1%YesNo
December 31, 202619%YesNo
September 30, 20264%YesNo
SpaceX88%YesNo
Anthropic13%YesNo
December 31, 202692%YesNo
September 30, 202673%YesNo
20-4062%YesNo
0-2026%YesNo
July 3177%YesNo
July 3058%YesNo
Anthropic66%YesNoGoogle13%YesNo
No IPO by December 31, 202683%YesNo
1T–1.25T6%YesNo
September 3083%YesNo
August 3148%YesNo
claude-opus-4-6-thinking98%YesNo
claude-fable-51%YesNo
AI race markets - FAQ
What does a 60% price on an AI market mean?
The market collectively estimates a 60% probability that the outcome happens. Shares pay $1 if it resolves yes, $0 if not - so 60¢ is the crowd's live probability, backed by real money.
Which AI markets have the most volume?
Best-model-by-year-end markets (judged by benchmark leaderboards), major release-date markets, and company milestones like revenue or valuation thresholds typically lead AI-category volume.
How do these markets resolve?
Each market specifies its resolution source up front - usually a named benchmark leaderboard, an official company announcement, or a credible-reporting standard. Read the rules tab before trading: the resolution criteria are the contract.
