Polymarket Guides
From basics to advanced strategies - everything you need
Foundations
5
BeginnerWhat Is Polymarket? The Complete Beginner's Guide (2026)
Learn what Polymarket is, how prediction markets work, and whether it's right for you. Covers trading mechanics, fees, real examples, verified profitability stats.
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BeginnerHow to Create a Polymarket Account (Step-by-Step Guide)
Step-by-step guide to creating your Polymarket account. Covers email, Google, and wallet sign-up methods, proxy wallet security, KYC requirements, 2FA setup.
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BeginnerHow to Deposit Money on Polymarket (Cheapest Methods 2026)
The complete 2026 Polymarket deposit guide. Compare credit card (1-4.5%), crypto transfer (under $1), bank ACH, cross-chain bridging, and MoonPay side by side.
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BeginnerHow to Withdraw from Polymarket to Your Bank or Wallet (2026)
Complete Polymarket withdrawal guide. Step-by-step: withdrawing USDC to exchanges, bank accounts (ACH/SEPA), and self-custody wallets. Fees, limits, processing.
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BeginnerYour First Trade on Polymarket - A Complete Walkthrough (2026)
A true step-by-step guide to your first Polymarket trade. Read a market page, approve USDC, choose market vs limit orders, size your position, monitor P&L.
Read guideTrading Mechanics
7
BeginnerTypes of Markets on Polymarket - Complete Category & Structure Guide
Every Polymarket market structure and category explained: binary, multi-outcome, NegRisk, conditional, 5-minute crypto, perps. Where your edge lives in 2026.
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AdvancedThe Polymarket Order Book Guide - CLOB Mechanics for Traders
Master the Polymarket Central Limit Order Book: bid/ask, spread, depth, complementary books, order types (GTC/GTD/FOK/FAK), maker rebates, and execution tactics.
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AdvancedHow Polymarket Markets Resolve - Oracle, UMA & Payout Guide
How Polymarket markets resolve in 2026: UMA Optimistic Oracle, Chainlink feeds, MOOV2 whitelist (177 proposers), dispute flow, DVM escalation, payout timing.
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AdvancedSelling Polymarket Positions - When & How to Exit Before Resolution
A practical playbook for exiting Polymarket positions: when to take profit, when to cut losses, slippage, partial sells, opportunity cost, and the 60-70% rule.
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AdvancedMulti-Outcome & NegRisk Markets on Polymarket (Complete 2026 Guide)
Master Polymarket multi-outcome and NegRisk markets in 2026: capital-efficiency math, field-fade strategy, sum-over-$1 arbitrage, and election-field tactics.
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MasterUMA Disputes on Polymarket: The Complete 2026 Survival Guide
Everything Polymarket traders need to know about UMA Oracle disputes in 2026: how the process works, the $7M Ukraine attack, MOOV2 whitelist, and defense plays.
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MasterPolymarket Perpetual Futures - Complete Guide (2026)
Complete guide to Polymarket perpetual futures launched April 21, 2026: how 10x leverage, funding rates, and liquidation work, head-to-head with Binance/Bybit.
Read guideStrategy & Psychology
9
AdvancedProbability Thinking - The #1 Skill of Profitable Polymarket Traders
The probability framework separating the 7.6% profitable Polymarket traders from the 84.1% who lose: EV math, base rates, Bayesian updating, and calibration.
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AdvancedPosition Sizing: The Kelly Criterion for Polymarket (2026 Playbook)
Master position sizing on Polymarket: the Kelly Criterion, quarter-Kelly rule, worked examples, bankroll-management tables, and the rules that prevent ruin.
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BeginnerEvery Risk of Trading Polymarket - The Honest 2026 Guide
The unvarnished truth about Polymarket risk in 2026: 84.1% of 2.5M wallets lose money. Market, liquidity, oracle, smart-contract, regulatory, psychological risk.
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BeginnerWhy 84% of Polymarket Traders Lose Money (And How to Join the 7.6%)
Why 84.1% of Polymarket wallets lose money in 2026 and how to avoid every major trap. 18 data-backed mistakes, concrete fixes, and the habits of winning traders.
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AdvancedThe Psychology of Prediction Market Trading - Master the Mental Game
Master the psychology of Polymarket trading: the seven cognitive biases that make 84.1% lose, how to beat tilt and FOMO, and why revenge trading destroys edge.
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Master10 Proven Polymarket Trading Strategies (2026 Edition)
Ten Polymarket strategies profitable traders actually use in 2026: rules edge, overreaction fade, mention bias, favorite compounder, and liquidity provision.
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MasterAdvanced Multi-Market Strategies for Polymarket (2026)
Advanced Polymarket strategies for 2026: cross-category correlation chains, portfolio hedging, calendar spreads, NegRisk basis trades, and Polymarket-Kalshi arb.
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MasterPolymarket Liquidity Rewards: The Complete Market-Maker Playbook (2026)
Complete 2026 guide to Polymarket liquidity rewards: the $5M+ monthly pool, two-sided market-making strategy, scoring formula, and earnings by capital tier.
Read guideWhale Tracking on Polymarket: Follow the Smart Money (Without Getting Burned)
Complete whale-tracking playbook for Polymarket in 2026: top wallets, tracking tools, on-chain clustering, insider-detection signals, Theo's $85M case study.
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8
AdvancedTrading Political Markets on Polymarket: The Complete 2026 Playbook
Master Polymarket political markets in 2026: election trading, polling analysis, base rates, longshot fades, cross-platform arbitrage, and resolution rules.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Crypto Markets on Polymarket (Complete 2026 Guide)
Master Polymarket crypto markets in 2026: 260+ contracts, 5-minute BTC binaries, monthly price targets, 10x perpetual futures, and Chainlink resolution mechanics.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Sports Markets on Polymarket (Complete 2026 Guide)
Master Polymarket sports markets in 2026: 3,128+ markets, the $729M World Cup, UFC partnership, live trading, line shopping, and liquidity-reward strategies.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Economic Markets on Polymarket (Fed, CPI, GDP, 2026)
Complete 2026 guide to Polymarket economic markets: 157+ markets covering Fed rates (28), inflation (19), tariffs (189), recession, and GDP. Nowcasting tools.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Geopolitical Markets on Polymarket (Complete 2026 Guide)
Master Polymarket geopolitical trading in 2026: 673 markets, $280M Iran ceasefire, Ukraine peace deals, insider-trading risks, dispute defense, and six strategies.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Science, Tech, AI & Culture Markets on Polymarket (2026 Guide)
Complete 2026 guide to Polymarket's niche markets: AI milestones, SpaceX launches, drug approvals, weather, mention markets. The highest-edge category on site.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Weather & Climate Markets on Polymarket (Hurricane, Temperature, ENSO - 2026)
Trade Polymarket weather markets: 490 contracts on hurricanes, temperature records and ENSO cycles, GFS and ECMWF model cadence, NHC advisories, and lockup sizing.
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AdvancedHow to Trade Pop-Culture Markets on Polymarket (Awards, Music, Celebrity - 2026 Guide)
Trade Polymarket pop-culture markets: 387 contracts across Oscars, Grammy, Billboard and celebrity events, the SAG precursor signal, and the 10-week awards calendar.
Read guideReference & Tools
40
BeginnerPolymarket vs Kalshi: The Complete 2026 Comparison
Polymarket vs Kalshi in 2026: fees, volumes, markets, regulation, US access, and resolution mechanisms compared head-to-head with concrete trading examples.
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BeginnerPolymarket Country Guide - Where It's Available and How to Access (2026)
Complete country-by-country guide to Polymarket access in 2026: US DCM (QCEX) waitlist status, EU/UK/LATAM/Asia/Middle East availability, restricted jurisdictions.
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AdvancedPolymarket Tax Guide - How to Report Gains and Losses (2026)
Complete 2026 tax guide for Polymarket: IRS classification (capital gains, gambling, Section 1256), Form 8949 examples, UK/EU/Canada treatment, and record-keeping.
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MasterPolymarket API Guide - Build Your First Trading Bot in 2026
Complete developer guide to the Polymarket API: CLOB trading, Gamma discovery, py-clob-client 0.34.6 setup, proxy wallet auth, order types, WebSocket streaming.
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BeginnerBest Polymarket Tools and Resources (2026) - Trackers, Analytics, Bots
Curated guide to the best Polymarket tools in 2026: whale trackers, Dune dashboards, Telegram bots, developer SDKs, tax software, data sources by category.
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BeginnerPolymarket Glossary - Every Term Explained (2026 Edition)
Comprehensive Polymarket glossary: 120+ prediction market terms defined in plain English. CLOB, UMA, NegRisk, MOOV2, DVM, Chainlink, Kelly Criterion, perps.
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AdvancedPolymarket pUSD Migration Guide: USDC.e to pUSD (April 2026)
Complete migration guide for Polymarket's USDC.e to pUSD switch on April 28, 2026. Wallet steps, API changes, contract addresses, and bot updates with sample code.
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guide.lvl_intermediateHow to Build a Polymarket Trading Bot - 32-Chapter Series
The complete 32-chapter guide to building a Polymarket trading bot in 2026. Python, Rust, Node.js stacks. Strategy patterns, per-market deep dives, paper trading, going live. By Harley Young.
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guide.lvl_intermediateDovresti costruire un bot per Polymarket? Verifica della realtà (2026)
Verifica onesta della realtà nel 2026 prima di costruire un trading bot per Polymarket: dati sulla redditività, requisiti di tempo e capitale, quando i bot battono il trading manuale e quando no.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePrerequisiti per un Bot Polymarket: competenze, tempo, capitale
Prima di scrivere una riga di codice per un bot Polymarket: il livello di competenza richiesto in Python o Node.js, le nozioni di base di web3, l'impegno di tempo settimanale e il capitale minimo per il live trading.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket Bot Stack: Python, Rust o Node.js?
Scegli lo stack del tuo bot Polymarket: Python (py-clob-client 0.34.6), Node.js (@polymarket/clob-client-v2 v1.0.2) o Rust (nessun SDK ufficiale, costruisci su ethers-rs). Pro, contro, latenza, esempi di codice.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket VPS Hosting: ne abbiamo testati diversi, ecco il migliore
Abbiamo testato diversi host VPS per i nostri bot Polymarket. Per prezzo, valore e performance raccomandiamo TradingVPS. Test di latenza, schede di confronto, guida al sizing, scelta della regione.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolygon RPC per bot Polymarket: Alchemy, QuickNode, Ankr
Confronto dei provider RPC Polygon per bot Polymarket nel 2026: Alchemy, QuickNode, Ankr, endpoint pubblici, self-hosted. Latenza, rate limit, free tier utilizzabile per paper trading.
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guide.lvl_intermediateWallet dei bot Polymarket, autenticazione e gestione delle chiavi
Autenticazione dei bot Polymarket e configurazione del wallet: proxy wallet vs EOA, generazione della API key tramite SDK, sigType 2 per Gnosis Safe, best practice per l'archiviazione delle chiavi e la migrazione da Magic a Privy.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket Gamma API: Eventi, Mercati, Tag, Paginazione
Approfondimento su Polymarket Gamma API: endpoint /events e /markets, paginazione, ID dei tag (864 Tennis, 745 NBA, ecc.), filtraggio per volume 24h, rate limit e esempi di codice Python e Node.
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guide.lvl_intermediateAPI Orderbook CLOB di Polymarket: REST + WebSocket
API CLOB di Polymarket per bot: endpoint REST per snapshot dell'order book, subscription WebSocket per aggiornamenti in tempo reale, parsing di bid/ask, calcolo di mid-price e depth, esempi di codice.
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guide.lvl_intermediateDati on-chain di Polymarket: Polygon, UMA, contratti CTF
Leggi direttamente i dati on-chain di Polymarket: saldi USDC/pUSD, letture dei contratti CTF per l'offerta degli esiti, eventi proposti/disputati di UMA Optimistic Oracle e log delle transazioni Polygon - con codice.
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AdvancedPolymarket FOK, FAK, GTC: Tipi di ordine a confronto
Tipi di ordine Polymarket spiegati per chi costruisce bot: Fill-or-Kill (FOK), Fill-and-Kill (FAK), Good-til-Cancelled (GTC) e i compromessi tra limit e market. Con regole decisionali di livello production-grade.
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AdvancedPolymarket NegRisk Markets: Meccaniche di esecuzione
Come funzionano i mercati multi-esito NegRisk su Polymarket: meccaniche sum-to-1, il flag negRisk negli ordini CLOB, perché le leg YES tra diversi mercati NegRisk non sono intercambiabili e le best practice di execution.
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AdvancedPolymarket Phantom Fills: rilevamento, idempotenza, retry
Come rilevare i phantom fill di Polymarket (ordini che sembrano riempiti ma non lo sono), implementare retry idempotenti, distinguere status=matched da rested-on-book e sopravvivere a fallimenti transitori.
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AdvancedPolymarket Market Making: Spread Capture e Maker Rebates
Market making su Polymarket: come quotare bid e ask, catturare lo spread, guadagnare maker rebates (20-25% delle taker fees), la matematica del inventory risk e quando il MM funziona sui prediction markets.
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AdvancedArbitraggio delle Notizie su Polymarket: Battere il Mercato sulle Headline
Arbitraggio delle notizie su Polymarket: come battere il mercato sulle headline, feed di origine (RSS/Twitter/AP), budget di latenza, filtri per falsi positivi e quando il vantaggio informativo si assorbe nel prezzo di mercato.
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AdvancedPolymarket Sports Bot: microstruttura NFL, NBA, calcio
Bot di microstruttura sportiva su Polymarket: edge in-game, mispricing guidato dal punteggio, tag NBA (745) e Tennis (864), fonti dati live e pattern di esecuzione per mercati sportivi ad alta frequenza.
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AdvancedPolymarket Statistical Arbitrage e trade cross-mercato
Arbitraggio statistico su Polymarket: pair cross-mercato (eventi correlati), spread Polymarket-vs-Kalshi, mean reversion e come dimensionare le posizioni stat-arb quando i mercati alla fine si risolvono.
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AdvancedBot di Squilibrio del Book degli Ordini per Polymarket
Usa lo squilibrio del book degli ordini di Polymarket come segnale di prezzo a breve termine: rapporto tra volume bid-ask, calcolo del microprice, half-life del segnale e quando i bot di imbalance battono l'esecuzione casuale.
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AdvancedUMA Dispute Prediction: bot per l'edge della resolution
Bot di previsione delle dispute UMA su Polymarket: rilevare proposte dell'Optimistic Oracle, prevedere la probabilità di dispute, sfruttare l'asimmetria di prezzo pre e post dispute ed evitare le spirali di morte dei mercati disputati.
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AdvancedPolymarket Liquidity Rewards: Playbook per il Maker Farming
Farma i liquidity rewards di Polymarket in modo programmatico: come funziona il rebate program, le soglie di spread per qualificarsi, i calcoli del ROI, la classifica dei mercati profittevoli e quando il farming batte altre strategie.
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AdvancedPolymarket Whale Tracker e bot di Copy-Trading
Traccia i wallet di balene su Polymarket e copia i top performer programmaticamente: identifica wallet profittevoli via leaderboard e analisi on-chain, replica i loro trade con regole di size e timing.
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guide.lvl_intermediateBinary Yes/No Bot: Il Market Type Fondamentale
Strategie di bot per mercati binary Yes/No su Polymarket: standard event contracts, leva massima hard-capped 1x, crescita tramite ampiezza del portfolio, errori comuni (inseguire 0.99) e skeleton del codice.
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guide.lvl_intermediateStrategie del bot multi-esito NegRisk
Bot multi-esito NegRisk su Polymarket: meccaniche sum-to-1, arbitraggio sui leg quando i leg YES non sommano a 1, hedging tra i leg e insidie di esecuzione specifiche dei mercati multi-esito.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket mercati crypto a 5 minuti: pattern HFT
Pattern bot per i mercati Polymarket BTC/ETH up-down a 5 minuti: 288 scadenze al giorno, esecuzione critica per la latenza, fonti di edge, perché la maggior parte dei bot retail perde e skeleton del codice per la strategia.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket Perpetual Futures: leva reale (2026)
Bot per i perpetual futures (perp) di Polymarket: leva nativa 2-25x, carry sul funding rate, matematica della distanza di liquidazione, sizing basato su ATR, vs perp Binance/Bybit. Regole production-grade e scheletro di codice.
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guide.lvl_intermediateBot sportivi Polymarket per NFL, NBA e Soccer
Bot per i mercati sportivi su Polymarket: partite NFL settimanali, microstructure del tag NBA (745), soccer (Premier League, Bundesliga, Champions League), tennis (864) - liquidità, fonti di edge, pattern di codice.
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guide.lvl_intermediateStrategie del bot per Election & Politics su Polymarket
Bot per i mercati election e politics su Polymarket: lezioni dal 2024 negli US, setup per il 2028, mercati EU e UK, mercati legati a Trump, spread tra polling e market, dimensionamento per long-hold e codice per monitorare più mercati elettorali.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket: bot per previsioni meteo e clima
Bot di previsione meteo e clima su Polymarket: mercati su landfall di uragani, temperatura massima giornaliera, El Niño/La Niña (ENSO), fonti dati NOAA e NWS e come convertire dati meteo in segnali di trading.
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guide.lvl_intermediatePolymarket Pop Culture: bot per premi, musica, intrattenimento
Bot per pop culture e intrattenimento su Polymarket: Oscar, Grammy, Met Gala, metriche del tour di Taylor Swift, box office, uscite Netflix/Disney — fonti dati e identificazione dell'edge.
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AdvancedPolymarket Paper Trading Engine: il gate dei 30 trade
Costruisci un motore di paper trading per Polymarket prima di andare live: simula gli ordini contro i prezzi reali, traccia P&L, applica il gate dei 30 trade (>=55% win rate, PnL positivo) prima di capitale reale, con scheletro di codice.
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AdvancedCodice di Risk Management per Bot Polymarket: limiti, kill switch, halt
Codice di risk management di livello production per bot Polymarket: limiti di posizione, limiti di perdita giornalieri, sentinelle di halt, watchdog sul fill rate, reconcile-on-restart, retry idempotenti. Pattern di codice da un trader reale in produzione.
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AdvancedPolymarket Bot in Diretta: Deposit, TP/SL, Monitoraggio
Andare live con il tuo Polymarket bot: primo deposito di 25-50 USD, regole di take-profit e stop-loss, soglie di alert (Telegram/email), cadenza di reconciliation e piano di scaling della prima settimana.
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AdvancedErrori del Bot Polymarket e Postmortem Reali
Errori reali dei bot Polymarket e postmortem: phantom fills, dedup sticky-fail, whipsaw lol-ctg-ccg, bug del flag NegRisk, go-live prematuro - con i commit e le date che hanno risolto ciascun problema.
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