🔬 Prediction Markets: Tech & Science

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31

Yes 15¢No 85¢

September 30

Yes 11¢No 89¢

$37.8M Volume 31/12

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

June 30

Yes 96¢No 4¢

May 31

Yes 91¢No 9¢

$1.7M Volume Ends today

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest

Yes 54¢No 46¢

2nd hottest

Yes 34¢No 66¢

$16.8K Volume 10/06

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?

>9

Yes 28¢No 72¢

6

Yes 16¢No 84¢

$17.7K Volume Ends today

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+

Yes 62¢No 38¢

1.8T–2.0T

Yes 10¢No 90¢

$945.1K Volume 31/12

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?

0

Yes 58¢No 42¢

1

Yes 29¢No 71¢

$35.9K Volume Ends today

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

1900

Yes 88¢No 12¢

1925

Yes 25¢No 75¢

$3.6K Volume 6 days left

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

2

Yes 57¢No 43¢

1

Yes 37¢No 63¢

$2.8M Volume 31/12

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

Yes 29¢No 71¢

11–13

Yes 27¢No 73¢

$1.4K Volume 31/12

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.15–1.19ºC

Yes 45¢No 55¢

1.10–1.14ºC

Yes 22¢No 78¢

$1.2K Volume 10/06

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

Yes 87¢No 13¢

Anthropic

Yes 10¢No 90¢

$1.8M Volume 31/12

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

May 30

Yes 52¢No 48¢

May 15

Yes 17¢No 83¢

$23.4K Volume 6 days left

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

Yes 99¢No 1¢

↑3k

Yes 60¢No 40¢

$3.6K Volume 31/12

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0

Yes 59¢No 41¢

1

Yes 36¢No 64¢

$1.1M Volume 31/03

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

Yes 56¢No 44¢

1150–1199

Yes 15¢No 85¢

$71.5K Volume 10/01

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

8+

Yes 80¢No 20¢

7

Yes 18¢No 82¢

$1.9M Volume 30/06

How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)

0

Yes 67¢No 33¢

3

Yes 29¢No 71¢

$683 Volume Ends today

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?

85–90

Yes 99¢No 1¢

90–95

Yes 1¢No 99¢

$140 Volume Ends today

Precipitation in NYC in May?

4-5"

Yes 45¢No 55¢

2-3"

Yes 34¢No 66¢

$131 Volume 6 days left

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

≤8

Yes 47¢No 53¢

10

Yes 27¢No 73¢

$1.4K Volume 30/06

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-159

Yes 37¢No 63¢

160-179

Yes 32¢No 68¢

$301.9K Volume 31/12

Precipitation in London in May?

30mm+

Yes 54¢No 46¢

10-15mm

Yes 41¢No 59¢

$77 Volume 6 days left

Precipitation in Hong Kong in May?

180-190mm

Yes 40¢No 60¢

190-200mm

Yes 40¢No 60¢

$49 Volume 6 days left

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5

Yes 62¢No 38¢

5-6

Yes 26¢No 74¢

$46 Volume 31/12

Precipitation in Seoul in May?

100-110mm

Yes 41¢No 59¢

150-160mm

Yes 41¢No 59¢

$38 Volume 6 days left

How many SpaceX launches in May?

10

Yes 83¢No 17¢

13

Yes 52¢No 48¢

$1.1K Volume 6 days left

Precipitation in Seattle in May?

>3"

Yes 10¢No 90¢

$6 Volume 6 days left

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Hong Wang

Yes 84¢No 16¢

Jacob Tsimerman

Yes 61¢No 39¢

$518.9K Volume 30/07