This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Foreign Policy
· Geopolitics
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? (Resolved)
Yes
$10.6M Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? (Resolved) market resolve?
This market is settled. The final outcome was confirmed and paid out under Polymarket's published resolution rules.
How much money is trading on Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? (Resolved)?
Traders have put $54.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
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