Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The prediction market regarding the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, currently reflects a low probability of 2.6%, with a trading volume of $6.6 million. This market is significant as it gauges geopolitical tensions in East Asia, providing insights into investor sentiment and potential military developments that could impact global stability and economic conditions. Understanding these probabilities helps stakeholders assess risks associated with international relations and regional security.