Politics · NZ

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

View on Polymarket

$1.2K Volume

07/11/2026 00:00

market.mkt_cta_label

View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket →

Green Party

$48 Volume

78%

Labour Party

$476 Volume

49%

National Party

$572 Volume

72%

ACT New Zealand

$8 Volume

80%

New Zealand First Party

$7 Volume

75%

Te Pāti Māori

$50 Volume

78%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

The current front-runner is Green Party at 54%, ahead of ACT New Zealand at 46%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.

What do traders predict for Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Traders currently imply a 54% chance for Green Party. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 7 Nov 2026 (74 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Total traded volume on this market is $1.2K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.