Politics · NZ

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

View on Polymarket

$1K Volume

07/11/2026 00:00

View on Polymarket

View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket →

Labour Party

$370 Volume

90%

Green Party

$41 Volume

81%

National Party

$554 Volume

80%

ACT New Zealand

$8 Volume

79%

Te Pāti Māori

$50 Volume

79%

New Zealand First Party

$7 Volume

81%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

It's a genuine race: Labour Party edges the field at 61%, barely ahead of Green Party at 55%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.

What do traders predict for Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Traders give Labour Party a 61% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.

When does the Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 7 Nov 2026 (120 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Traders have put $1K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.