This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US recession by end of 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 8%, with No at 93%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for US recession by end of 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 8%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US recession by end of 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US recession by end of 2026?
$5.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade US recession by end of 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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