This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
September Meeting
$286.2K Volume
1%
October Meeting
$103.6K Volume
5%
December Meeting
$285.9K Volume
12%
Resolved 5
January Meeting
$588.1K Volume
No
March Meeting
No
April Meeting
$543K Volume
No
June Meeting
$785K Volume
No
July Meeting
$579.1K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed rate cut by?
Even the leader is cheap - December Meeting trades at 12%, October Meeting at 4%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Fed rate cut by?
No strong consensus yet: December Meeting tops the implied probabilities at just 12%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Fed rate cut by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 8 Jan 2027 (139 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Fed rate cut by?
Total turnover stands at $3.2M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Fed rate cut by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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