This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Fed
· Jerome Powell
· Economy
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
$151.6K Volume
24%
October Meeting
$50K Volume
12%
September Meeting
$103.5K Volume
8%
July Meeting
$107.1K Volume
4%
June Meeting
$487.8K Volume
1%
Resolved 3
January Meeting
$588.1K Volume
No
March Meeting
No
April Meeting
$543K Volume
No
About This Market
Similar Markets
Fed Decision in June?
No change
Yes 99¢No 1¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 1¢No 99¢
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
Yes 81¢No 19¢
1 (25 bps)
Yes 9¢No 91¢
Fed Decision in July?
No change
Yes 94¢No 6¢
25 bps increase
Yes 4¢No 96¢
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Pause–Pause–Pause
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Other
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Fed Decision in September?
No change
Yes 76¢No 24¢
25 bps increase
Yes 19¢No 81¢
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↓ 3.25%
Yes 26¢No 74¢
↑ 4.25%
Yes 15¢No 85¢
