This market will resolve to โYesโ if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to โNoโ.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Fed rate cut by...?
Fed
Jerome Powell
Economy
Economic Policy
Fed Rates
Yes Probability
10%
No Probability
90%
Trading Volume
$1.4M
Time Remaining
57 days left
December Meeting
$66.7K Volume
64%
September Meeting
$84.7K Volume
46%
October Meeting
$37.1K Volume
34%
July Meeting
$37.9K Volume
22%
June Meeting
$166.4K Volume
8%
April Meeting
$435.8K Volume
1%
2 Options resolved