As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026:
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
War Material amendment
$154 Volume
81%
VAT federal decree
$799 Volume
73%
Fireworks restriction initiative
$1K Volume
32%
Marriage taxation initiative
$91 Volume
30%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
The money is on War Material amendment at 80%; VAT federal decree follows at 73%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
Traders lean toward War Material amendment, pricing it at 80%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass market resolve?
The market runs until 29 Nov 2026 (137 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
Traders have put $5.3K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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