The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Europe
· iceland
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Yes is priced at 52% and No at 48%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Traders currently imply a 52% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 30 Aug 2026 (6 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Total traded volume on this market is $34.3K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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