Taxes · referendum

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

$3.7M Volume
03/11/2026 00:00
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A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Yes is priced at 29% and No at 72%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Traders currently imply a 29% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 3 Nov 2026 (71 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $3.7M, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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