This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
August 30
$61 Volume
80%
October 31
73%
December 31
77%
Resolved 1
June 30
$1.4K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Screwworm National Emergency declared by?
The current front-runner is August 30 at 46%, ahead of December 31 at 45%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Screwworm National Emergency declared by?
Traders currently imply a 46% chance for August 30. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Screwworm National Emergency declared by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Screwworm National Emergency declared by?
Total traded volume on this market is $1.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Screwworm National Emergency declared by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
December 314%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
September 3093%YesNo
2800+99%YesNo
2825+93%YesNo
<425mm77%YesNo
475-500mm30%YesNo
80-9954%YesNo
100–11938%YesNo
2900+98%
3000+93%





