This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Past
≤-0.2%
$636 Volume
1%
-0.1%
$861 Volume
1%
0.0%
$1.1K Volume
1%
0.1%
$3.2K Volume
5%
0.2%
$6.3K Volume
70%
0.3%
$18.8K Volume
31%
0.4%+
$3.1K Volume
3%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Core PCE MoM - July 2026?
The money is on 0.2% at 67%; 0.3% follows at 29%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for Core PCE MoM - July 2026?
The market makes 0.2% the favorite at 67%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Core PCE MoM - July 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 26 Aug 2026 (4 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Core PCE MoM - July 2026?
$345 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Core PCE MoM - July 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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