This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
AI
· Tech
Best AI model on June 13?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$46.5K Volume
82%
Other
$59.5K Volume
16%
claude-opus-4-6
$11.5K Volume
1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$8.3K Volume
1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$6.1K Volume
1%
gemini-3.5-flash
$2.3K Volume
1%
About This Market
Similar Markets

Which company has best AI model end of June?
Yes 85¢No 15¢
Yes 11¢No 89¢

Largest Company end of June?
Yes 94¢No 6¢
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Yes 91¢No 9¢
Yes 8¢No 92¢

GPT-5.6 released by...?
July 31
Yes 97¢No 3¢
June 30
Yes 87¢No 13¢

OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 47¢No 53¢
September 30, 2026
Yes 11¢No 89¢

Largest Company end of December 2026?
Yes 66¢No 34¢
Yes 16¢No 84¢

Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?
↑$1.75T
Yes 96¢No 4¢
↑$2.0T
Yes 87¢No 13¢

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Yes 4¢No 96¢
Yes 1¢No 99¢