This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$55.5K Volume
2%
September 15
$16 Volume
15%
September 30
$106.4K Volume
16%
October 31
$65 Volume
69%
November 30
$147 Volume
89%
Resolved 2
June 30
$92.2K Volume
No
July 31
$19.1K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Gemini 4.0 released by?
The current front-runner is November 30 at 86%, ahead of October 31 at 61%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Gemini 4.0 released by?
Traders currently imply a 86% chance for November 30. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Gemini 4.0 released by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Dec 2026 (98 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Gemini 4.0 released by?
Total traded volume on this market is $273.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Gemini 4.0 released by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
October 3160%YesNo
September 3042%YesNo
No release by November 145%YesNo
September 21–September 2712%YesNo
No release by September 3073%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
45%+86%YesNo
40%+85%YesNo
No release by August 3193%YesNo
August 272%YesNo
OpenAI + Anthropic34%
Google66%
50%+71%YesNo
55%+45%YesNo
1480+86%YesNo
1490+71%YesNo
