This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
claude-opus-5-high
$8.6K Volume
95%
claude-opus-5-max
$28.3K Volume
7%
Other
$7.8K Volume
2%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7K Volume
1%
qwen3.8-max
$905 Volume
1%
Resolution Source: arena.ai
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-high dominates the field at 94%; the nearest challenger, claude-opus-5-max, trades at just 5%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Best AI model on August 24?
Traders price claude-opus-5-high at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Best AI model on August 24 market resolve?
Mark 24 Aug 2026 (2 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Best AI model on August 24?
Traders have put $7.1K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Best AI model on August 24 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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