The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Tarcísio de Freitas
$133K Volume
98%
Fernando Haddad
$48.1K Volume
3%
Márcio França
$10.7K Volume
1%
Erika Hilton
$22.9K Volume
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76.5K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
The current front-runner is Tarcísio de Freitas at 97%, ahead of Fernando Haddad at 3%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
Traders currently imply a 97% chance for Tarcísio de Freitas. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the São Paulo Governor Election Winner market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 4 Oct 2026 (41 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
Total traded volume on this market is $291.2K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade São Paulo Governor Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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