This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
25 bps decrease
$58.5K Volume
78%
No Change
$40.2K Volume
22%
50+ bps increase
$17.5K Volume
1%
25 bps increase
$17K Volume
1%
50+ bps decrease
$25.6K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Brazil decision in August?
25 bps decrease leads the field at 76%, with No Change next at 22%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for Bank of Brazil decision in August?
The market makes 25 bps decrease the favorite at 76%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Bank of Brazil decision in August market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 4 Aug 2026 (11 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Bank of Brazil decision in August?
$3.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Bank of Brazil decision in August on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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