Gaza Prediction Markets

Gaza prediction markets track ceasefire moves, hostage deals, territorial control shifts and humanitarian issues. Polymarket prices in real time the probability of measurable events: will a ceasefire be signed by date X? Will hostages be released?

Volume spikes around headlines from Cairo, Doha and Washington, reacting to security-source reporting.

17 active markets
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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.6M Volume 30/09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
35%
chance
Yes No
$359.6K Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202765%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
$106.3K Volume 01/04
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3111%YesNo
November 307%YesNo
$16.2M Volume 01/01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%YesNo
September 3089%YesNo
$26.3M Volume 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 318%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$71.5M Volume 01/01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
14%
chance
Yes No
$22.1K Volume 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
$19K Volume 30/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%YesNo
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%YesNo
$17.8K Volume 31/12
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3127%YesNo
September 3010%YesNo
$8.6M Volume 01/01
Will Iran target a Arab country on...?Will Iran target a Arab country on...?
August 1799%YesNo
August 3012%YesNo
$660.3K Volume 31/08
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108K Volume 01/10
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 227%
August 3128%
$3.7K Volume 31/08
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3110%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$8.4M Volume 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
$3.6M Volume 01/01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$29.1M Volume 01/01
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1737%YesNo
August 2619%YesNo
$2.9K Volume 31/08
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Gaza Markets FAQ

What Gaza markets does Polymarket offer?

Ceasefire timing, hostage release, deal signing, territorial control, and state-recognition markets. Each is a binary or multi-outcome contract on a measurable event.

What moves Gaza market prices?

Government statements, press reports, international diplomacy and regional mediator activity. Prices react within minutes of major news.

How do I open an account to trade?

Use our Polymarket referral link - a Polygon account opens in minutes. You can track live markets and volume in English on our site.

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