Gaza Prediction Markets

Gaza prediction markets track ceasefire moves, hostage deals, territorial control shifts and humanitarian issues. Polymarket prices in real time the probability of measurable events: will a ceasefire be signed by date X? Will hostages be released?

Volume spikes around headlines from Cairo, Doha and Washington, reacting to security-source reporting.

24 active markets
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Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
August 3140%YesNo
July 3125%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 31/08
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
July 3142%YesNo
July 1710%YesNo
$278.1K Volume 31/07
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3138%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
$9M Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5%
chance
Yes No
$620.9K Volume 31/07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
1%
chance
Yes No
$620.9K Volume 6 days left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
62%
chance
Yes No
$620.9K Volume 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?
July 312%
August 316%
$76.4K Volume 31/08
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3113%YesNo
September 306%YesNo
$7.3M Volume Ends today
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 1313%YesNo
July 1012%YesNo
$837.4K Volume Ends today
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Switzerland27%YesNo
Pakistan18%YesNo
$39.7K Volume 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 1041%YesNo
July 932%YesNo
$30.1K Volume 31/07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%YesNo
October 319%YesNo
$17.2M Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3141%YesNo
October 3125%YesNo
$5.4M Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
July 312%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$12.1M Volume Ends today
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
14%
chance
Yes No
$8.5K Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3112%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
$28.4M Volume 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 312%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$9.8M Volume Ends today
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3122%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
$773K Volume 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
August 3190%YesNo
July 3156%YesNo
$18.3K Volume 31/07
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%YesNo
Lebanon12%YesNo
$5.6K Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3133%YesNo
July 313%YesNo
$2.8M Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3133%YesNo
July 313%YesNo
$2.8M Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
23%
chance
Yes No
$7.7K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
2%
chance
Yes No
$7.7K Volume 31/07
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Gaza Markets FAQ

What Gaza markets does Polymarket offer?

Ceasefire timing, hostage release, deal signing, territorial control, and state-recognition markets. Each is a binary or multi-outcome contract on a measurable event.

What moves Gaza market prices?

Government statements, press reports, international diplomacy and regional mediator activity. Prices react within minutes of major news.

How do I open an account to trade?

Use our Polymarket referral link — a Polygon account opens in minutes. You can track live markets and volume in English on our site.

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