Iran · Israel

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

$76.6K Volume
31/08/2026 00:00
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July 31
$1.2K Volume
3%
August 31
$75.5K Volume
6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both specified countries or political entities. who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities, deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation between the countries.

Both direct and indirect meetings will qualify. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of the specified entities directly interact with each other in person. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city, with the intermediary conveying diplomatic communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.

The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.

Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the specified entities is separately held alongside such a convening.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by?
The field is wide open: August 31 tops it at just 6%, with July 31 close behind at 2%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by?
No strong consensus yet: August 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 6%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Aug 2026 (52 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by?
Total turnover stands at $76.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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