This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ICC
· Gaza
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Yes is priced at 16% and No at 84%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Traders currently imply a 16% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2027 (495 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Total traded volume on this market is $99.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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