Weather Prediction Markets

Weather prediction markets let you trade the daily forecast. Polymarket runs markets on the highest and lowest temperature in 40+ cities worldwide - New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Tel Aviv, Moscow, Seoul and more - each resolving against the official reading for that day. US cities trade in Fahrenheit, the rest in Celsius.

Beyond temperature you will find rain, snow (in inches) and monthly precipitation markets. Instead of a simple yes/no guess, every price is a probability - for example a 30% chance the high in New York lands in the 90-91°F bucket - and the markets resolve automatically against a trusted weather data source.

367 active markets
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft89%YesNo
Below 4,189.3 ft8%YesNo
100mm+41%YesNo
50-60mm40%YesNo
15°C90%YesNo
14°C12%YesNo
86-87°F58%YesNo
84-85°F28%YesNo
44-45°F52%YesNo
42-43°F49%YesNo
60-61°F88%YesNo
51°F or below47%YesNo
8°C64%YesNo
7°C33%YesNo
7°C90%YesNo
4°C5%YesNo
2°C36%YesNo
1°C31%YesNo
Dallas, TX1%YesNo
San Francisco, CA1%YesNo
26°C51%YesNo
24°C49%YesNo
45-55mm43%YesNo
55-65mm39%YesNo
0°C64%YesNo
-4°C46%YesNo
1st hottest97%YesNo
3rd hottest2%YesNo
Above 3,510 ft95%YesNo
3,500–3,510 ft3%YesNo
21°C87%YesNo
20°C13%YesNo
19°C47%YesNo
22°C2%YesNo
7.9 or below79%YesNo
8.4 – 8.58%YesNo
20°C47%YesNo
19°C45%YesNo
4°C30%YesNo
5°C30%YesNo
17°C46%YesNo
18°C30%YesNo
15°C61%YesNo
13°C or below44%YesNo
23°C98%YesNo
17°C or below5%YesNo
60-61°F51%YesNo
55°F or below50%YesNo
Somalia32%YesNo
South Sudan30%YesNo
149%YesNo
224%YesNo
10°C45%YesNo
9°C or below4%YesNo
10°C45%YesNo
9°C40%YesNo
8°C50%YesNo
7°C48%YesNo
47°F or below55%YesNo
54-55°F30%YesNo
11°C37%YesNo
13°C37%YesNo
61°F or below50%YesNo
66-67°F50%YesNo
Los Angeles, CA46%YesNo
Houston, TX46%YesNo
2-3"40%YesNo
3.5-4.25"39%YesNo
14°C51%YesNo
13°C48%YesNo
5.7 to 5.850%YesNo
6.1 or more1%YesNo
17°C39%YesNo
16°C34%YesNo
9°C45%YesNo
8°C39%YesNo
84 to 97 km/h47%YesNo
98 km/h or above44%YesNo
21°C39%YesNo
19°C or below37%YesNo
1°C or below50%YesNo
3°C39%YesNo

Weather Markets FAQ

What weather markets are on Polymarket?

Mainly the daily highest and lowest temperature for 40+ world cities, plus rain (whether it will rain in a given city), snow accumulation in inches, and monthly precipitation totals.

How do temperature markets work?

Each market splits the day's high (or low) into temperature buckets - for example "84-85°F" or "86-87°F". You buy the bucket you expect the real reading to land in. The winning bucket pays $1 per share; every other bucket pays $0.

Why do some cities show °F and others °C?

US cities (New York, Chicago, Miami and so on) use Fahrenheit, while cities outside the US (London, Tokyo, Tel Aviv and others) use Celsius. We keep each market in its original unit and never convert it.

Which cities are covered?

More than 40, including New York, London, Paris, Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Moscow, Madrid, Istanbul, Tel Aviv, Toronto and Miami. Fresh daily markets open every day.

How are weather markets resolved?

Automatically, against the official daily reading for each city from a trusted weather data source. There is no manual claim to make - winning shares are paid out for you.

Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more