Typhoon · Weather

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

$203.4K Volume
01/07/2027 03:59
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Fewer than 5
$6.2K Volume
1%
8
$52.9K Volume
69%
7
$65.4K Volume
34%
Greater than 8
$67.5K Volume
24%
5
$6.6K Volume
1%
6
$4.9K Volume
1%

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.

All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.

One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".

If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Resolution Source: tcdata.typhoon.org.cn

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
The current front-runner is 8 at 64%, ahead of 7 at 25%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Traders currently imply a 64% chance for 8. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jul 2027 (240 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $203.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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