Climate & Science · Earthquakes

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

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$1.2M Volume

31/03/2027 00:00

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$498.4K Volume

72%

$273.5K Volume

20%

$40.5K Volume

$31.1K Volume

$34.7K Volume

$274.8K Volume

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.

If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 leads the field at 72%, with 1 next at 20%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.

What do traders predict for How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

The market makes 0 the favorite at 72%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.

When does the How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 market resolve?

Mark 31 Mar 2027 (252 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.

How much money is trading on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Traders have put $1.2M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.