The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Hike–Pause–Hike
$164.8K Volume
72%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$164.2K Volume
25%
Other
$36.6K Volume
1%
Resolved 6
Hike–Hike–Hike
$113.1K Volume
No
Hike–Hike–Pause
$70.1K Volume
No
Pause–Pause–Hike
$2.1K Volume
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
$15.6K Volume
No
Pause–Hike–Hike
$2K Volume
No
Pause–Hike–Pause
$2.7K Volume
No
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?
The current front-runner is Hike–Pause–Hike at 72%, ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause at 25%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?
Traders currently imply a 72% chance for Hike–Pause–Hike. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 9 Dec 2026 (37 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?
Total traded volume on this market is $3.2K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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