For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
climate
· Weather
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Yes is priced at 14% and No at 86%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Traders currently imply a 14% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Total traded volume on this market is $340.8K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
China91%YesNo
Japan49%YesNo
Over 2.563%YesNo
2.25–2.520%YesNo
more than 1325%YesNo
≤612%YesNo
047%YesNo
135%YesNo
Very Strong Typhoon93%YesNo
Violent Typhoon5%YesNo


