Weather · climate

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

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$4.6K Volume

01/04/2027 03:59

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Under 1.5

$405 Volume

1.5–2.0

$481 Volume

2.0–2.25

$973 Volume

28%

2.25–2.5

$1.6K Volume

26%

Over 2.5

$1.1K Volume

41%

This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.

This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.

The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

Resolution Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Even the leader is cheap - Over 2.5 trades at 39%, 2.0–2.25 at 27%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.

What do traders predict for What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Right now the market's best guess is Over 2.5 at 39% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.

When does the What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 1 Apr 2027 (221 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Total turnover stands at $4.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.

How can I trade What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño on Polymarket?

Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.