Japan · Mexico

Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

$382 Volume
03/09/2026 23:59
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Indonesia
$6.1K Volume
99%
Peru
$631 Volume
99%
Japan
$992 Volume
99%
Philippines
$2.7K Volume
60%
United States
$1.5K Volume
34%
Chile
$144 Volume
45%
Mexico
$440 Volume
29%

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".

A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.

If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.

Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution Source: earthquake.usgs.gov

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
At 99%, Indonesia has pulled far clear of Peru (99%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
Traders price Indonesia at a 99% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August market resolve?
Mark 3 Sep 2026 (12 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
Total turnover stands at $382. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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