On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Israel
· Geopolitics
· World
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
January 31
50%
June 30
$124.3K Volume
9%
Resolved 5
October 31
$2.5M Volume
No
November 30
$347.8K Volume
No
November 7
$201.5K Volume
No
December 31
$708.5K Volume
No
March 31
$144.6K Volume
No
About This Market
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