This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 2%, while No trades at 98%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 2% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31 market resolve?
Mark 31 Aug 2026 (9 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
$4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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