This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
Yes is trading at 10% and No at 90%, based on live order-book prices on Polymarket. The numbers move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
The market gives Yes a 10% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.
When does the Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31 market resolve?
It is scheduled to resolve on 31 Jul 2026 (31 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
Total traded volume on this market is $12.1K - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.
How can I trade Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31 on Polymarket?
Follow the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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