This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
DeepSeek
· Business
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (Resolved)
Anthropic
$258K Volume
99%
OpenAI
$455.5K Volume
1%
Mistral
$16.2K Volume
1%
Z.ai
$20.6K Volume
1%
DeepSeek
$287.5K Volume
1%
xAI
$594.4K Volume
1%
Meta
$31K Volume
1%
Alibaba
$20.9K Volume
1%
Nvidia
$10.2K Volume
1%
Baidu
$12.3K Volume
1%
Meituan
$5.3K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (Resolved) market resolve?
This market has already resolved. The final outcome was settled under Polymarket's published resolution criteria.
How much money is trading on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (Resolved)?
Total traded volume on this market is $1.7M, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
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