This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Tech
· AI
· Business
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
OpenAI
$422.2K Volume
7%
xAI
$566.4K Volume
2%
Meta
$18.4K Volume
2%
Mistral
$13.8K Volume
1%
Z.ai
$12.7K Volume
1%
Baidu
$5.5K Volume
1%
DeepSeek
$280.6K Volume
1%
Alibaba
$15K Volume
1%
Nvidia
$6.9K Volume
1%
Meituan
$3.4K Volume
1%
Resolved 1
Anthropic
$258K Volume
Yes
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