AI · Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

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$5.1K Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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Past

Jun 30 Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31

OpenAI

$13.8K Volume

30%

Google

$15.9K Volume

25%

Meta

$8.6K Volume

17%

xAI

$7.3K Volume

12%

ByteDance

$2.2K Volume

10%

Z.ai

$1.1K Volume

DeepSeek

$2.5K Volume

Baidu

$1.5K Volume

Amazon

$2.4K Volume

Microsoft

$3.2K Volume

Alibaba

$1.8K Volume

Meituan

$1.7K Volume

Moonshot

$1.7K Volume

Mistral

$5.4K Volume

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

The field is wide open: OpenAI tops it at just 30%, with Google close behind at 24%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.

What do traders predict for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

No strong consensus yet: OpenAI tops the implied probabilities at just 30%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.

When does the Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31 market resolve?

The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (174 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.

How much money is trading on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Traders have put $5.1K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31 on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.