AI · Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

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$129.8K Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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Past

Jun 30 Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31

OpenAI

$23.3K Volume

30%

Google

$17.3K Volume

17%

xAI

$9K Volume

13%

Alibaba

$3.6K Volume

12%

Meta

$14.9K Volume

12%

Moonshot

$9.2K Volume

12%

Z.ai

$2.6K Volume

ByteDance

$2.9K Volume

Baidu

$2K Volume

DeepSeek

$20.8K Volume

Microsoft

$5.2K Volume

Amazon

$5.2K Volume

Mistral

$10.3K Volume

Meituan

$3.4K Volume

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

The current front-runner is OpenAI at 30%, ahead of Google at 17%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.

What do traders predict for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Traders currently imply a 30% chance for OpenAI. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Total traded volume on this market is $129.8K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.