This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Macro Geopolitics
· Hormuz
· transit
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Yes
$17.9M Volume
1%
About This Market
AI Analysis
The prediction market regarding the return of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normal levels by May 15 currently reflects a probability of just 17.0%, with a trading volume of $50,000. This market will resolve positively if the IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at 60 or more during the specified timeframe. Given the Strait's critical role in global oil transportation, fluctuations in transit levels can significantly impact energy prices and geopolitical stability, making this market a key indicator for investors and policymakers alike.
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