This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 9%, with No at 92%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 9%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the New COVID variant of concern before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
Traders have put $245.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade New COVID variant of concern before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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