This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Past
<5
$98K Volume
30%
5-6
$113.2K Volume
58%
7-8
$158K Volume
14%
9-10
$60.7K Volume
3%
11-12
$7.7K Volume
3%
13-14
$8.9K Volume
2%
15-16
$29.8K Volume
2%
>16
$12.2K Volume
2%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
It's a genuine race: 5-6 edges the field at 58%, barely ahead of <5 at 29%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
At 58% implied for 5-6, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (160 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
$226 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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