This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
SpaceX
· Space
· Science
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
$92.4K Volume
52%
5-6
$109.5K Volume
15%
>16
$10.9K Volume
4%
9-10
$57.2K Volume
2%
13-14
$6.8K Volume
2%
7-8
$153.7K Volume
2%
11-12
$5.2K Volume
1%
15-16
$27.1K Volume
1%
About This Market
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SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
>$1T
Yes 99¢No 1¢
>$1.2T
Yes 98¢No 2¢
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
Yes 45¢No 55¢
1.5T-2.0T
Yes 33¢No 67¢
SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
June 30
Yes 99¢No 1¢
December 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
1T+
Yes 99¢No 1¢
<500B
Yes 1¢No 99¢
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
70-80B
Yes 94¢No 6¢
80-90B
Yes 6¢No 94¢
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
Yes 67¢No 33¢
1.8T–2.0T
Yes 19¢No 81¢
SpaceX IPO Date
June 12
Yes 98¢No 2¢
June 30 or later
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?
↑$1.6T
Yes 97¢No 3¢
↑$1.75T
Yes 89¢No 11¢
