This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 9%, while No trades at 91%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 9%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (160 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$251.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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