earthquake · Weather

Megaquake by August 31?

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$6.4K Volume

31/08/2026 23:59

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A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Megaquake by August 31?

Yes is priced at 2% and No at 98%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Megaquake by August 31?

Traders currently imply a 2% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Megaquake by August 31 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Aug 2026 (7 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Megaquake by August 31?

Total traded volume on this market is $6.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Megaquake by August 31 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.