This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
<100
64%
100-124
64%
125-149
64%
150-174
64%
175+
64%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?
The field is wide open: <100 tops it at just 34%, with 125-149 close behind at 34%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?
Right now the market's best guess is <100 at 34% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13 market resolve?
Mark 19 Jul 2026 (9 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?
Total turnover stands at $24.2K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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