This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Past
<25
$2.2K Volume
38%
25-49
$1.5K Volume
60%
50-74
$627 Volume
5%
75-99
$878 Volume
1%
100+
$468 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
It's a genuine race: 25-49 edges the field at 59%, barely ahead of <25 at 38%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
Traders give 25-49 a 59% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17 market resolve?
Mark 23 Aug 2026 (7 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
$13.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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